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Bills vs Bears! NFL Preseason, 17 AUG 2025, Ghost Picks ATS

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NFL Preseason: Bills vs. Bears OVER 40.5

Game Overview:

Date & Time: Sunday, August 17, 2025, 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL


Why are we hammering the over?


Quarterback Depth & Offensive Firepower:

Bears: Rookie QB Caleb Williams is expected to play with the starters. In preseason Week 1 he showcased both poise and mobility. Getting extended first-half reps tonight against Buffalo’s second-unit defense should translate into points.

Bills: Buffalo has capable depth behind Josh Allen. Backup QB Kyle Allen and rookie Shane Buechele have both shown the ability to move the ball quickly in camp. This keeps Buffalo’s offense alive into the second half.

Defensive Rotations & Inexperience:

Both defenses are experimenting heavily. Chicago’s young secondary will rotate and may be vulnerable to deep shots. Buffalo’s linebacking corps has new faces still learning assignments. Preseason breakdowns = chunk plays.

Skill Position Matchups:

Bears WRs vs. Bills DBs: DJ Moore and Keenan Allen (even in limited snaps) plus rookie depth create mismatch opportunities, especially versus rotated defensive backs. Bills RBs vs. Bears LB Corps: James Cook and Ty Johnson can break runs against a Bears linebacker rotation still sorting itself out.

Game Script & Tempo:

Chicago’s new head coach Ben Johnson is intent on showing off his offensive system. Expect scripted drives and quicker tempo early.

Buffalo will counter with aggressive looks, leaning into its revamped WR corps to keep pace.


Bet: OVER 40.5


Everything points toward scoring: Chicago showcasing Williams, Buffalo’s deep QB room, and both defenses in evaluation mode. In preseason, those ingredients almost always favor points. This should give us fireworks in prime time.


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