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FREE PLAY:

Tonight’s game between the Diamondbacks and Padres is primed for some fireworks, and I’m all in on the Over 9.5 runs.

 Pitching Matchup?

The original stats I looked at showed Nestor with a 9.00 ERA. I had to look deeper into that to get the real stats but after much review, Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Diamondbacks he’s crafty with a 3.60 ERA, but sometimes leaves pitches up in the zone, which can lead to damage. The Padres’ Anthony DeSclafani has been inconsistent this season with a 4.88 ERA, giving up plenty of extra-base hits and struggling with command at times.

Both starters aren’t the typical shutdown arms, which sets the stage for an offensive showdown.

Wind is on our side going outward:

Petco Park usually favors pitchers, but tonight’s 11 MPH wind blowing out will carry balls further, increasing the chance for home runs and extra runs.

 Scoring Trends & Bullpen Notes:

The Diamondbacks offense is hot lately, averaging 5.1 runs per game in their last 10 outings. The Padres bats aren’t far behind, averaging 5.4 runs per game in their recent stretch. Both bullpens have been shaky, allowing an average of 5.5 runs per game combined in relief over the last two weeks.

🔒 Official Play: Over 9.5 runs

With two middling starters, an 11 MPH wind pushing balls out, and both offenses heating up, the Over 9.5 runs is a smart, high-value play.

Lock it in and let’s cash that juicy total.