FREE NCAAF PREDICTION! Liberty vs NMSU 10/14/2025
- Ghost Picks Jimmy Blog
- Oct 14
- 2 min read
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Liberty -10 (-110)
Liberty comes into this matchup as a double-digit favorite for good reason, and I’m backing the Flames to cover the number against New Mexico State. Liberty’s defense has been quietly consistent, ranking among the better units in the country at limiting explosive plays and forcing opponents into long-yardage downs. That’s a major problem for an Aggies offense that’s one-dimensional and struggling to establish any rhythm on the ground, averaging under 3.5 yards per carry. Liberty’s secondary should be able to sit back and disrupt NMSU’s pass-heavy approach, while their balanced offense, led by an efficient passing game and a strong red-zone conversion rate, should wear down a thin Aggies front. With home-field advantage in Lynchburg and better overall depth on both sides of the ball, this game lines up for Liberty to control tempo, win the turnover margin, and pull away late.
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