🏈 FREE PLAY — Texans vs Chargers DECEMBER 27TH 2025

UNDER 39.5 (DraftKings)

We’re back with another free NFL total, and this one checks every box for a lower-scoring game script.

📊 The Pick

• Game: Texans vs Chargers

• Play: UNDER 39.5

• Confidence: 8.3 / 10

• Model Edge: +7.1 points

• Recommended Units: 1.25 Units

🧠 Breakdown

This matchup projects as a field-position and efficiency-driven game rather than a shootout. Both teams struggle to generate consistent explosive plays, and each defense performs better when protecting short fields.

Red-zone efficiency is limited on both sides, which creates stalled drives instead of quick touchdowns. If the score remains tight late — which the projections strongly support — both teams naturally shift into clock-management mode, further suppressing scoring.

Across projections, this game consistently lands in the mid-to-high 30s, making the under the cleaner angle.

🔮 Projected Score

Chargers 20 — Texans 17(37 total)

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Good luck 🍀