Ghost Picks ATS Free play: Marlins vs Guardians, 08/14/2025

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Marlins vs Guardians Under 7.5 Total Runs (-115)

Why Does This Bet Make Sense?

Pitching Advantage: Edward Cabrera is locked in just a 2.06 ERA over his last seven starts and fiercely consistent since mid-May. Tanner Bibee has been volatile on the road and his ERA is well north of Cabrera’s.

Weak Cleveland Offense: The Guardians are languishing near the bottom in key metrics like wRC+, slugging, OBP, and average at home.

Backed by pitching matchup, offensive metrics, and expert/model consensus.

Expected Outcome: Tight, low-scoring game controlled by effective starting pitching, ideally ending around 4-3 or 4-2.

Under 7.5 runs!