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Ghost Picks Patrick's NCAAF Free Pick - Michigan St vs Oregon

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NCAAF Friday Night Free Picks

Michigan St vs Oregon

Michigan St +23.5 (-110) *Consensus

This is ugly. Originally, I thought this would be Ohio St all the way... After digging in, I think this one may come down to the wire. I was on Ohio St vs Michigan St last week for the cover. That game was much closer than the score indicated. Michigan St was able to move the ball consistently down the field in the 1H. A 4th & 1 turnover on downs and 2 fumbles in the red zone killed them. They are not a team to play from behind and couldn't get anything moving in the 2H. Simply put, turnovers have killed this offense this year. Against Maryland, BC & 1H of Ohio St... they looked like a capable offense. Minus the turnovers that is. Oregon has not forced much havoc on defense this season, though they have been solid overall. Outside of Boise St (34 points and moved ball up & down field), they have not been tested at all,facing two of the worst offenses in college football. Michigan St is not a ton better, but good enough to keep this within the number tonight. If they are able to avoid the big turnovers, they have a chance to upset Oregon in a KEY LOOKAHEAD game with Ohio St on deck next week.

As for Sparty on defense, they rank top-20 in adjusted EPA against the run per play on defense and in the top-25 of traditional metrics as well. Against an Oregon team that is one of the best in the country, that is the key factor. Avoid the big play over the top and Michigan St be just fine.

-GPP