🏀 🔒 PLAY 4 — NBA Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks

UNDER 242.5

📈 Model Edge: +4.6💰 Units: 1.00

📝 Why this play is on the Card:This total remains inflated relative to current offensive availability and efficiency projections. While pace may still be respectable, the model shows a noticeable drop in shot quality and rim efficiency compared to what this number implies.

Extended empty possessions and fewer clean looks at the basket are the difference-makers here. That’s often how extremely high totals fail — not through slow pace, but through normal execution that simply doesn’t sustain peak scoring.

Market pricing continues to reflect an offensive ceiling that isn’t consistently present, and that disconnect creates value on the under.

🔢 Projected Score:Dallas 121 – Utah 114

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This play is one of five on today’s Ghost Picks Juice card.

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We feel good about today’s slate and the way the card sets up.

📈 Ghost Picks Juice — Let the data do the talking.