Wild Wednesday, Free play, Royals vs Nationals 08/13/2025!
- Ghost Picks Jimmy Blog
- Aug 13
- 2 min read
Ghost Picks Nation! Another big day inbound!
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Why am I taking Royals -1.5?
Starting Pitching Advantage
Seth Lugo brings better control, a lower ERA, and stronger home numbers than Irvin, giving KC a significant edge in this matchup.
Nationals Pitching Stinks
Washington has one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB, allowing 5.48 runs per game (29th) with the worst bullpen ERA, making them highly exploitable late in the season.
Royals Pitching Strength
Kansas City boasts one of the league’s best pitching staffs overall, ranking 2nd in MLB in fewest runs allowed per game (3.84).
Home Field & Momentum
KC has reeled off four straight home wins, while Washington is just 25-36 on the road this season.
Value & Betting Trends
The spread is sitting at Royals -1.5 (+115), offering noteworthy value on a club with multiple advantages. Simulations and expert analysis also lean heavily toward KC, including a model giving them a 59% win probability .
Prediction
The Royals lean on Lugo’s home dominance and the Nationals’ pitching woes to post a multi-run win in the series finale.
Factor Edge
Pitching Matchup Lugo’s control & consistency vs. Irvin’s inconsistency
Team Defense/Bullpen Royals elite rotation vs. Nationals league-worst ERA
Home/Road Splits KC strong at home; WSH poor on road
Betting Value +115 on -1.5 provides upside.
Play: Royals -1.5 (+115) Let’s ride the wave at Kauffman!
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